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Brent crude oil price and USD exchange rate An inverse relationship between the price of Brent crude oil and the dollar exchange rate has been evident since source: This box examines the interdependence between the monthly returns of the two variables. As Chart 2 shows, the negative relationship between the dollar and the Brent oil price has increased over the last few years. The average coefficient of correlation between the two returns since is The average correlation coefficient since has been A similar inverse relationship with the dollar exchange rate is visible for other commodities, such as industrial metals and agricultural commodities.
One explanation for this inverse relationship is the growing role of investors in commodity markets, related to falling financial asset returns low interest rates in advanced countries. In real terms, interest rates were 2.
In addition, the Fed commenced a first round of quantitative easing QE1 at the start of This was replaced with a second round QE2 between November and June In this situation, oil and other commodities are alternative investment assets used to diversify the risk of inflation, the risk of dollar depreciation or the risk of a stock market decline.
Above and beyond traditional fundamental factors, additional speculative demand has therefore probably been driving up commodity prices in recent years. Saudi Arabia — not least in an attempt to give the planned listing of its state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco a boost — wants Russia and other producers to keep withholding supplies to prop up prices. Last week, the number of US oil rigs drilling for new production rose for a fourth straight week to , an indication that US crude output, already at a record Gold set for a four consecutive weekly gain The metal climbed as the dollar fell back on the expectation the Fed may pause interest rates hikes if the US economy slows in Most Read Rand starts year well but headwinds remain.
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Lediglich zwei Prozent des Ölbedarfs ölpreis leitner stammen aus heimischen Ölfeldern.
Deshalb eignet sich dieser Kontrakt besonders gut als reines Finanzprodukt. Wenn der Heizölpreis hier signifikant nach oben aus dem Trendk ausbricht, ist seine Bahn bis circa 79 Eurocent frei, die ebenfalls in knapp zwei Jahren erreicht sein können.