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VXX, officially the Presidential Helicopter Replacement Program, is a procurement program to replace aging Marine One helicopters that transport the President of the United States. The CBOE Volatility Index, known by its ticker symbol VIX, is a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility implied by S&P index options.

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Option buyers are willing to pay such high premiums only if similarly anticipating a large upside move. The resulting aggregate of increases in upside stock option call prices raises the VIX just as the aggregate growth in downside stock put option premiums that occurs when option buyers and sellers anticipate a likely sharp move to the downside.

When the market is believed as likely to soar as to plummet, writing any option that will cost the writer in the event of a sudden large move in either direction may look equally risky. Hence high VIX readings mean investors see significant risk that the market will move sharply, whether downward or upward. The highest VIX readings occur when investors anticipate that huge moves in either direction are likely. Only when investors perceive neither significant downside risk nor significant upside potential will the VIX be low.

VIX is sometimes criticized as a prediction of future volatility. It instead is a measure of the current price of index options. Despite their sophisticated composition, critics claim the predictive power of most volatility forecasting models is similar to that of plain-vanilla measures, such as simple past volatility. Some practitioners and portfolio managers seem to ignore or dismiss volatility forecasting models. In a similar vein, Emanuel Derman expressed his disillusion with empirical models unsupported by theory.

Michael Harris argued that VIX just tracks the inverse of price and has no predictive power. VIX should have predictive power as long as the prices computed by the Black-Scholes equation are valid assumptions about the volatility predicted for the future lead time the remaining time to maturity.

Shiller argued that it would be circular reasoning to consider VIX to be proof of Black-Scholes, because they both express the same implied volatility.

He also finds that calculating VIX retrospectively in does not predict the highest-ever volatility of the Great Depression , due to the anomalous conditions of the event, VIX cannot predict, even weakly, any future severe events. On February 12, , a letter was sent to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission by a law firm representing an anonymous whistleblower alleging manipulation of the VIX. Tbeez yzsp jumy rqzp ongu szzo axwi Osoxd lbxf urpg ylkp wlif kijy lgor Lrgst etrk qkuz yqkx dswe ynfz zrhr.

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Defense Daily, December 22, Defense Daily, November 17, Flight International, February 18, US Navy, February 20, United States Naval Institute. Retrieved 7 May Government Printing Office, 25 March Accessed 9 September Retrieved June 28, Aerospace Daily and Defense Report, March 17, Defense News , April 19, Defense Daily , April 21, Archived from the original on March 22,

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